Tag: oscar-nominations-2015

  • Oscars 2015: The Reasons for the Black Shutout Are More Complicated Than You Think

    Well, with last Thursday’s announcement of the Oscar nominations, the sometimes ratings-challenged Academy Awards got all the traditional media and online attention they could have wished for. Too bad almost all of the attention was negative.

    Usually, Oscar controversies are about taste — whether “Crash” was really better than “Brokeback Mountain,” or whether “Shakespeare in Love” was really better than “Saving Private Ryan.” This year’s controversy over “Selma,” however, is shining an unflattering light on Hollywood’s racial politics.

    The snubbing of “Selma” in every category except Best Song and, curiously, Best Picture — that’s only part of what has professional and amateur critics up in arms. As many have noted, this year is the first since 1998 that no actors of color have been nominated. The nominations list has drawn predictable condemnation from the likes of Spike Lee and Rev. Al Sharpton, who has threatened to go to Hollywood and take unspecified steps to remedy the situation. Even Cheryl Boone Isaacs, the president of the Academy, has felt compelled to address the outrage. Meanwhile, on Twitter, #OscarsSoWhite has become a trending hashtag.

    It’s a little too easy to blame this year’s awards slate on old-fashioned racism. After all, this is the same Academy that, last year, named “12 Years a Slave” Best Picture, nominated Steve McQueen for Best Director, nominated Chiwetel Ejiofor for Best Actor, nominated Barkhad Abdi for Best Supporting Actor, and named Lupita Nyong’o Best Supporting Actress. And Alfonso Cuaron became the first Latino to win Best Director. And this year, Alejandro Gonzalez Iñarritu could become the second; his film “Birdman” tied with “The Grand Budapest Hotel” for most nominations this year (nine each), including Best Picture. Conversely, Clint Eastwood failed to score a nomination for himself for directing “American Sniper,” even though the film was cited for Best Picture and several other categories. Did he not get the nomination because he’s white? Or because the liberals in the Academy still won’t forgive him for his chair speech at the Republican National Convention in 2012?

    Still, this year’s sudden white-out seems fishy. But if it’s not straight-out racism, a lot of other excuses have been trotted out to explain it. A lot of awards-season voters didn’t receive “Selma” DVD screeners in time. The controversy over the film’s historical accuracy may have soured some Academy members on the film. (Though similar controversies over the factuality of “Foxcatcher” and “The Imitation Game” didn’t keep those films from getting a slew of nominations.) Or maybe this was just such a strong year for films that there just wasn’t room to recognize the contributions of black people to the industry this year.

    This last reason sounds especially specious. Not to slight the Best Actor nominees this year, but was David Oyelowo’s performance as Rev. Martin Luther King in “Selma” — the one element of the movie no one seemed to find fault with — not worthy to be included among them? And aside from “Selma,” was Chadwick Boseman’s performance as James Brown in “Get On Up” a lesser achievement than those of the white actors nominated for biopic roles this year? Did Gugu Mbatha-Raw not deserve consideration for her starring roles in “Belle” or “Beyond the Lights”? Was Chris Rock’s screenplay for “Top Five” not worthy of inclusion? Did cinematographer Bradford Young, who shot both “Selma” and “A Most Violent Year,” not deserve a nod? Did not one black person do Oscar-worthy work this year?

    Rather, the problem seems more complicated and systemic. It’s been pointed out that the Academy membership is 94 percent white. This, in turn, is probably reflective of what the film industry looks like as a whole, especially behind the camera. As Chris Rock has noted, people in Hollywood tend to hire other people who resemble themselves. That’s not necessarily racism, just a failure of imagination, an inability to think outside the box. The Academy Awards seem to work the same way; voters tend to choose nominees from their own background unless (like last year) they’re given a compelling reason not to.

    The answer to the problem, then, seems to require a more diverse Academy membership. Which is something that Academy president Boone Isaacs (who is the Academy’s first black president) says her organization is working toward. Addressing the nomination controversy, she told the Associated Press, “In the last two years, we’ve made greater strides than we ever have in the past toward becoming a more diverse and inclusive organization through admitting new members and more inclusive classes of members,” Without directly criticizing this year’s slate of nominees or the process that created it, she added, “And, personally, I would love to see and look forward to see a greater cultural diversity among all our nominees in all of our categories.”

    Of course, for her to add more minority folk to the Academy roster, there have to be more of them finding work in Hollywood. Which ultimately means there has to be more diversity in the executive suites among those who make hiring decisions, both in front of and behind the camera.

    It would make economic sense. After all, according to the Motion Picture Association of America, Latinos go to the movies more often than other Americans, and white people go less often. (African-Americans make up 12 percent of frequent moviegoers, consistent with their numbers in the populace as a whole.) Yet it’s only recently that the studios have recognized Latinos as a market worth courting, or that African-Americans want to see more than just Tyler Perry and Kevin Hart movies. The current box-office success of “Selma” and its overwhelmingly positive word-of-mouth (measured by a rare A+ grade at CinemaScore) suggests that, not only are black audiences hungry for more substantive and dramatic stories in which they can see their own hopes and aspirations reflected on screen, but that some white viewers are interested in such stories as well.

    The studio system in general is not poised to make such films, not because of racism but because the distributors are wedded to the blockbuster business model. All their eggs are in the giant-acton-spectacle basket, since such movies return hundreds of millions of dollars. Modestly budgeted dramas like “Selma” (or “The Theory of Everything” or “The Imitation Game,” for that matter) aren’t part of the business plan because their returns, while profitable, are also modest. These may be the kind of movies that win Oscars, but the major studios have all but abandoned that business to the independents. Again, it’s more about a failure of imagination than outright bigotry.

    Perhaps the wisest perspective on the situation comes from erstwhile firebrand Spike Lee, whom the Oscars famously snubbed 25 years ago for directing the landmark “Do the RIght Thing,” a movie that the Academy ultimately overlooked for Best Picture in favor of “Driving Miss Daisy,” a comforting racial fable that, a quarter-century later, looks quaintly patronizing at best. Talking to the Daily Beast, Lee pointed out that the ultimate arbiter of quality is not the Academy but history. Today, he pointed out, “nobody is talking about motherf—in’ ‘Driving Miss Daisy.’ That film is not being taught in film schools all around the world like ‘Do the Right Thing’ is.” He added. “You can’t go to awards like the Oscars or the Grammys for validation. The validation is if your work still stands 25 years later.”
    %Slideshow-260994%

  • Oscar Nominations 2015: Emma Stone’s Reaction to First Nom Is Profane and Perfect

    72nd Annual Golden Globe Awards - Arrivals
    Emma Stone couldn’t contain her excitement — or four-letter words — when reacting to the news of her first-ever Oscar nomination, for “Birdman,” on Thursday morning.

    The Best Supporting Actress nominee released a statement in recognition of the honor, and couldn’t help but unleash some of her signature personality (and profanity) that we’ve grown to know and love. The statement started rote enough before veering off into “awesome” territory.

    “Well this is surreal,” Stone’s statement said. “I am completely knocked out. Thank you to the Academy for this incredible honor. I am very proud and lucky to be part of ‘Birdman’ and I can’t believe it came to this. I am so f––ing excited. Are you allowed to say ‘f––’ when making a statement for the Oscars? I’m just really f––ing excited.”

    As far as the F-word goes, we think an Academy Award nominee is allowed to say whatever she pleases. Swear away, Emma, and stay awesome.

    [via: Vanity Fair]

    Photo credit: Jason Merritt via Getty Images

    %Slideshow-233680%

  • Oscar Nominations 2015: ‘Dick Poop’ Is This Year’s ‘Adele Dazeem’

    87th Academy Awards Nominations Announcement
    We’re still not done mocking John Travolta for his epic mangling of Idina Menzel’s name during the 2014 Oscars telecast. But it looks like Adele Dazeem already has some competition in this year’s Most Cringeworthy Name Pronunciation category: Dick Poop.

    That unfortunate blunder came courtesy of none other than Academy President Cheryl Boone Isaacs, who was attempting to say “Dick Pope” when announcing the nominees for Best Cinematography. Sadly for Pope, his nomination for British biopic “Mr. Turner” was overshadowed by Isaacs’s incorrect — and frankly, head scratching — pronunciation of his name.

    Perhaps Isaacs was fatigued from already pronouncing the tongue-twisting names of Pope’s fellow nominees, including “Ida” cinematographers Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lynzewski. But when she got to his name, she very clearly said “Dick Poop,” before correcting herself. In the clip below, courtesy of Slate, you can hear the audience titter and Boone try to stop herself from laughing after the unfortunate error.

    But Pope has proven to be a good sport about the snafu, telling USA Today that he actually felt more sorry for Isaacs than himself, and revealing a great sense of humor.

    “You know what, I have been called a lot worse in my time,” Pope told USA Today. “I don’t think twice about anything like that. I am happy to be nominated.”

    [via: Slate, USA Today]

    Photo credit: Kevin Winter via Getty Images

    %Slideshow-182754%

  • Oscar Nominations 2015: ‘LEGO Movie’ Director Makes His Own Statuette Following Snub (PHOTO)

    2014 New York Film Critics Circle Awards - Arrivals
    Among the biggest surprises when the Academy Award nominations were announced Thursday was the snub of “The LEGO Movie” in the Best Animated Feature category. While the fun flick had been considered a lock to win the statuette, it nevertheless came up short when the Oscar shortlist was revealed.

    The outcry was immediate and loud, leaving many fans and industry insiders alike scratching their heads in disbelief over the film’s almost complete shut-out. (It did manage to score one nomination in the Best Original Song category, for upbeat anthem “Everything Is Awesome!!!”)

    But “LEGO” co-director Philip Lord was not among those crying foul. Instead, he had the perfect response to the news.

    “It’s okay,” he wrote on Twitter, accompanied by a photo of a LEGO-ified Oscar statuette. “Made my own!”


    We applaud both Lord’s creativity, and his ability to be a good sport. The merits of “LEGO” may have gone unrecognized by The Academy, but moviegoers know that everything is a little bit more awesome because this film exists.

    [via: Philip Lord]

    Photo credit: Andrew H. Walker via Getty Images

    %Slideshow-202865%

  • Oscar Nominations 2015: Snubs and Surprises

    87th Academy Awards Nominations AnnouncementEverything is not awesome.

    The Oscar nominations are always full of snubs and surprises, but the one that’s probably causing the most gasping and eyebrow-raising after Thursday morning’s announcement of the nominees is the absence of “The LEGO Movie” from the Best Animated Feature list. If ever there were a gimme in your Oscar pool, that would have been it.

    Of course, there are plenty of other shockers — notably, that “Selma” was ignored in every category except Best Original Song and still managed to eke out a Best Picture nomination, and that “Gone Girl” was shut out of every category except Best Actress. And there were many other unexpected inclusions and disappointing omissions, as you’ll see below.

    Best Picture

    The Academy, which may pick between five and 10 Best Picture nominees, has chosen nine for the last few years, but this year, it only picked eight. The biggest oddity here is the inclusion of “Selma,” since support for that movie seems to have all but evaporated over the last couple of weeks, given the controversy over the screenplay’s historical accuracy. That cost the film nominations in every category it was eligible for except Best Song (for Common and John Legend’s “Glory”) and this one. It’s awfully rare for a movie to earn a Best Picture nod without also earning recognition for directing, screenwriting, or acting.

    The 2009 rule change that allowed the voters to nominate more than five films was supposed to make the category more populist, allowing for bigger commercial hits that also had artistic merit. (In other words, movies like Christopher Nolan’s “Interstellar.”) But “Interstellar” isn’t here (though it did earn five nominations, for Original Score and some technical categories), and neither is “Gone Girl,” widely expected to be among the nominees. Nor are such $100 million critic- and crowd-pleasing movies as “Into the Woods” and “Unbroken.” That means the biggest hit among the Best Picture nominees is “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” at $59 million, though “American Sniper” could eventually overtake it when it goes into wide release.

    At the other end of the spectrum, the Academy usually includes one independent film that was a critical darling if not a box office hit. (Call it the “Beasts of the Southern Wild” slot.) This year, “Foxcatcher,” “Nightcrawler,” and “Whiplash” were all fierce contenders for that slot. “Whiplash” managed to grab the brass ring, along with four other nominations. “Foxcatcher” got five as well, but not Best Picture. “Nightcrawler,” despite a recent groundswell of support among critics and awards group, also got left out of every Oscar category except Original Screenplay.

    Best Director

    Of course, since this category is limited to five nominees, at least three of the Best Picture candidates were doomed to be snubbed here. In fact, the voters snubbed four of the Best Picture-nominated directors: Clint Eastwood (“American Sniper”), Ava DuVernay (“Selma”), James Marsh (“The Theory of Everything“) and Damian Chazelle (“Whiplash”). “Foxcatcher” director Bennett Miller (an Oscar favorite since the days of “Capote” and “Moneyball”) grabbed the nomination that seemingly belonged to Chazelle, even though Miller’s movie didn’t even score a Best Picture nomination. Meanwhile, the surprising lack of love for “Gone Girl” extended to this category; tough luck, David Fincher. Similarly, with “Into the Woods” and “Unbroken” out of the running for the top prize, Rob Marshall and Angelina Jolie didn’t earn directing nominations either.

    Best Actor

    The most shocking snub here is that of “Selma” star David Oyelowo, whose performance as Martin Luther King seemed to be the one thing about the movie that no one could fault. Instead, Bradley Cooper, considered something of a longshot for “American Sniper,” managed to hit the target. (Then again, Cooper is also a producer of “American Sniper,” and the actors among the Academy voters like it when fellow actors create their own opportunities.) Left out were longer shots Jake Gyllenhaal of “Nightcrawler” and Ralph Fiennes of “The Grand Budapest Hotel.”

    Best Actress

    The big surprise here — and it’s a happy one — is the inclusion of Marion Cotillard for “Two Days, One Night.” After all, it’s a foreign language performance in a film that barely played in American theaters, and while it had won numerous critics’ awards, it was considered too low-profile to be on Oscar’s radar. Guess not.

    Then again, Cotillard’s inclusion meant no nomination for Jennifer Aniston, widely assumed to be a strong candidate for her atypically dramatic turn in “Cake.” (After all, it was the same kind of performance that earned Steve Carell a nomination for “Foxcatcher.”) Also unexpectedly ignored was Amy Adams, who just picked up a Golden Globe on Sunday for “Big Eyes.” And of course, Hilary Swank (“The Homesman”) and Emily Blunt (“Into the Woods”), both longshots, were left out. Rosamund Pike’s nomination wasn’t a surprise, but what was surprising was that hers was the only nomination “Gone Girl” received.

    Best Supporting Actor

    This was the most predictable category in this year’s Oscar race. There were really only six viable contenders for the five slots, and as expected, the one left without a chair when the music stopped was Christoph Waltz of “Big Eyes.”

    Best Supporting Actress

    Laura Dern was considered a longshot for her role in “Wild,” but she made it in. The other four slots went to widely predicted contenders. Dern’s inclusion meant a somewhat surprising snub for Jessica Chastain (“A Most Violent Year“). The “Into the Woods” and “Nightcrawler” waves that never materialized also meant snubs for Anna Kendrick and Rene Russo, respectively.

    Best Original Screenplay

    As in other categories, four of the five slots were easily predictable. The fifth went, surprisingly, to “Nightcrawler,” earning the crime drama its only nomination. That left no room for “Selma,” though the late-breaking controversy over the movie’s factuality had probably doomed its chances. Somewhat surprising is the omission of biopic “Mr. Turner,” since writer/director Mike Leigh is an Academy favorite, and since the movie earned four other nominations.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    The big shocker here was the snubbing of Gillian Flynn’s “Gone Girl” screenplay, widely admired as a deft and suspenseful adaptation of her own tricky novel. It had been considered a sure thing, along with “The Theory of Everything” and “The Imitation Game,” which both made the cut. “Whiplash” was a late entry to the game, thanks to a baffling Academy ruling that deemed it an adapted screenplay instead of an original, but voters managed to find it on the ballot, so its nomination is a pleasant surprise. So is that of “Inherent Vice,” a thorny literary adaptation that didn’t get recognized anywhere else on the nominations list except for its period costumes. “American Sniper” was also considered something of a longshot, so its inclusion over Nick Hornby’s adaptation of the challenging memoir “Wild” is also somewhat unexpected.

    Best Animated Feature

    The absence of “The LEGO Movie” will probably provoke the most outrage of anything in the nomination announcement. The acclaimed “The Book of Life” is also inexplicably absent. On the other hand, “The Tale of the Princess Kaguya,” from the beloved Japanese animation house Studio Ghibli, is a pleasant surprise, given the film’s weak box office. As for the film that grabbed what most thought was the “LEGO” nomination, it’s the all-but-unknown “Song of the Sea,” a movie that opened here in late December and is only playing at three theaters. It’s barely been on the awards radar, but it’s from Irish animator Tomm Moore, whose “The Secret of Kells” earned a similar surprise nomination five years ago. Meanwhile, “LEGO” fans will have to be satisfied with a Best Song nomination for “Everything Is Awesome.” At least that has a good shot at a win at the Oscar ceremony on February 22.
    %Slideshow-161512%

  • Oscar Nominations 2015: The Complete List

    %Slideshow-260994%
    Weeks of wild speculation, informed theorizing, splashy profile pieces, lunches where movie stars awkwardly make conversation with bloggers and occasionally aimless prognostication finally come down to this one morning: the morning where the nominations for the 87th annual Academy Awards are announced. The big show, hosted by the endlessly delightful Neil Patrick Harris, doesn’t air until February 22nd. But this morning is when the hand wringing really begins in earnest.

    There are a bunch of really handsome, talented people that are going to have a really good morning and even more that are going to be horribly disappointed (luckily they have the whole “handsome and talented” thing to lessen the blow). This has been one of the more unpredictable Oscar seasons in recent memory, without clear frontrunners or surefire favorites. So strap in — this is going to be a wild morning!

    Best Animated Feature Film
    Big Hero 6
    The Boxtrolls
    How to Train Your Dragon 2
    “Song of the Sea”
    The Tale of the Princess Kaguya

    Best Documentary Feature
    Citizenfour
    Finding Vivian Maier
    Last Days in Vietnam
    Salt of the Earth
    Virunga

    Best Film Editing
    Sandra Adair, “Boyhood
    Tom Cross, “Whiplash
    William Goldenberg, “The Imitation Game
    Joel Cox and Gary Roach, “American Sniper
    Barney Pilling, “The Grand Budapest Hotel

    Best Production Design
    “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    “The Imitation Game”
    Interstellar
    Into the Woods
    Mr. Turner

    Best Animated Short Film
    “The Bigger Picture”
    “The Dam Keeper”
    “Feast”
    “Me and My Moulton”
    “A Single Life”

    Best Documentary Short Subject
    “Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1”
    “Joanna”
    “Our Curse
    “The Reaper”
    “White Earth”

    Best Live Action Short Film
    “Aya”
    “Boogaloo and Gram”
    “Butter Lamp”
    “Parvaneh”
    “The Phone Call”

    Best Original Song
    “Glory” by Common and John Legend, “Selma
    “Lost Stars” by Gregg Alexander, Danielle Brisebois, Nick Lashley and Nick Southwood, “Begin Again
    “Everything Is Awesome” by Shawn Patterson, “The LEGO Movie
    “I’m Not Gonna Miss You,” by Glen Campbell, “Glenn Campbell: I’ll Be Me”
    “Grateful,” “Beyond the Lights

    Best Sound Editing
    American Sniper
    Birdman
    The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
    “Interstellar”
    Unbroken

    Best Sound Mixing
    “American Sniper”
    “Birdman”
    “Interstellar
    “Unbroken”
    “Whiplash”

    Best Visual Effects
    Captain America: The Winter Soldier
    Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
    Guardians of the Galaxy
    “Interstellar”
    X-Men: Days of Future Past

    Best Actor
    Steve Carell, “Foxcatcher
    Bradley Cooper, “American Sniper”
    Benedict Cumberbatch “The Imitation Game”
    Michael Keaton, “Birdman”
    Eddie Redmayne, “The Theory of Everything

    Best Actress
    Marion Cotillard, “Two Days, One Night”
    Felicity Jones, “The Theory of Everything”
    Julianne Moore, “Still Alice
    Rosamund Pike, “Gone Girl
    Reese Witherspoon, “Wild

    Best Supporting Actor
    Robert Duvall, “The Judge
    Ethan Hawke, “Boyhood”
    Edward Norton, “Birdman”
    Mark Ruffalo, “Foxcatcher”
    J.K. Simmons, “Whiplash”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Patricia Arquette, “Boyhood”
    Laura Dern, “Wild”
    Keira Knightley, “The Imitation Game”
    Emma Stone, “Birdman”
    Meryl Streep, “Into the Woods”

    Best Cinematography
    Emmanuel Lubezki, “Birdman”
    Roger Deakins, “Unbroken”
    Robert D. Yeoman, “The Grand Budapest Hotel
    Dick Pope, “Mr. Turner”
    Lukasz Zal and Ryszard Lynzewski, “Ida

    Best Costume Design
    Colleen Atwood, “Into the Woods”
    Anna B. Sheppard, “Maleficent
    Milena Canonero, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    Jacqueline Durran, “Mr. Turner”
    Mark Bridges, “Inherent Vice

    Best Director
    Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, “Birdman”
    Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
    Bennett Miller, “Foxcatcher”
    Wes Anderson, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    Morten Tyldum, “The Imitation Game”

    Best Foreign Language Film
    “Ida”
    Leviathan
    Tangerines
    Timbuktu
    “Wild Tales”

    Best Makeup and Hairstyling
    “Foxcatcher”
    “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    “Guardians of the Galaxy”

    Best Original Score
    Hans Zimmer, “Interstellar”
    Alexandre Desplat, “The Imitation Game”
    Johann Johannsson, “The Theory of Everything”
    Alexandre Desplat, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    Gary Yershon, “Mr. Turner”

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    Graham Moore, “The Imitation Game”
    Damien Chazelle, “Whiplash”
    Anthony McCarten, “The Theory of Everything”
    Jason Hall, “American Sniper”
    Paul Thomas Anderson, “Inherent Vice”

    Best Original Screenplay
    Richard Linklater, “Boyhood”
    Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, and Armando Bo, “Birdman”
    Wes Anderson and Hugo Guinness, “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    Dan Gilroy, “Nightcrawler
    E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman, “Foxcatcher”

    Best Picture
    “American Sniper”
    “Birdman”
    “Boyhood”
    “The Grand Budapest Hotel”
    “The Imitation Game”
    “Selma”
    “The Theory of Everything”
    “Whiplash”

    The Oscars, hosted by Neil Patrick Harris, will air live on ABC on Sunday, Feb. 22, at 7 p.m. ET / 4 p.m. PT.OSCAR NOMINATIONS 2015

  • Oscars 2015: Predicting the Nominations

    oscars 2015 nomineesThis year’s Oscar race has been a thorny one to predict. Despite the emergence early on of a few front-runners in each category — overall, the race has been dominated by “Boyhood” and “Birdman,” with “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” “The “Theory of Everything,” and “The Imitation Game” close behind — it’s those last few slots on the ballot in each category that are driving prognosticators nuts. Does “Selma” still have a strong shot in its eligible categories, or has the backlash soured Academy members? Is “Whiplash” big enough to make a dent outside the Supporting Actor category? Is “Nightcrawler” too creepy for the Academy?

    We’ll find out on Thursday, January 15, at 8:30 a.m. ET / 5:30 a.m. PT, when the Academy announces this year’s nominees. Meantime, here are Moviefone’s best guesses as to who will earn a seat when the music stops on Thursday and who’ll be left standing outside the circle.

    Best Picture

    The Academy may pick between five and 10 nominees for its top prize. The last couple of years, they’ve picked nine, and that’s likely to continue this year. “Boyhood” and “Birdman” are certain to be among them, and they will almost certainly be joined by “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” Adding to the group will almost surely be some of this year’s most celebrated biopics, including “The Theory of Everything” and “The Imitation Game.” “Selma,” too, will probably be a nominated biopic, despite the current contretemps over its fudging of history. “American Sniper” is a bit more of a longshot, as is “Unbroken.” The odds are longer still for “Gone Girl,” though it’s the biggest hit to date of any of the Oscar contenders. Its box office could be enough to earn it a mention (the Academy wants so desperately to be more populist and thereby drive up the ceremony’s TV ratings), though it doesn’t hurt that it was actually a well-crafted thriller that’s sure to receive at least one other major nomination and possibly three (see below). Conversely, “Big Eyes” barely made a dent at the box office; despite likely nominations for a performance or two, it almost certainly won’t crack the top category. “Into the Woods” could make it, though, following the path trod by “Les Miserables” a couple years ago. And the Academy likes writer/director Mike Leigh enough to make “Mr. Turner” a dim possibility. Finally, there are well-regarded indies “Foxcatcher” and “Whiplash,” at least one of which will squeeze in.

    Best Director

    Unfortunately, only five of the Best Picture nominees, at most, can earn Best Director nods. “Boyhood’s” Richard Linklater and “Birdman’s” Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu are the only locks here, though the fondness for “Grand Budapest Hotel” shown so far by the BAFTAs, the Golden Globes, and now the Directors Guild of America could extend to the Academy as well, meaning Wes Anderson is a near-certainty as well. Speaking of the Directors Guild — usually a very accurate predictor in this category — their nominations, announced on Tuesday, include those three names, plus Oscar favorite Clint Eastwood (“American Sniper“) and little-known British director Morten Tyldum (“The Imitation Game”). They snubbed “Gone Girl’s” David Fincher and “Selma’s” Ava DuVernay, though the latter could have suffered because the guilds didn’t get screeners of her movie. The Academy did, however, and the current groundswell of support for “Selma” could mean an Oscar nomination for her instead of Tyldum. On the other hand, Tyldum’s DGA nod means his closest rival, “The Theory of Everything” director James Marsh, is probably out of luck at the Oscars. So are longshots Bennett Miller (“Foxcatcher”), Damian Chazelle (“Whiplash”), Rob Marshall (“Into the Woods”), Angelina Jolie (“Unbroken”)

    Best Actor

    “Birdman” comeback-star Michael Keaton is a lock. So are British biopic actors Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Benedict Cumberbatch (“The Imitation Game”), and probably David Oyelowo (“Selma”). That leaves a slot that could go to fellow Brits Ralph Fiennes (“The Grand Budapest Hotel”) or Timothy Spall (in another biopic, “Mr. Turner”), but look for it to go to “Foxcatcher’s” Steve Carell, since his transformation from popular comic actor to chilly, unrecognizable villain is the kind of backstory the Oscars love. The one possible surprise would be a vote for Jake Gyllenhaal‘s creepy turn in “Nightcrawler,” but then, that performance has already received a surprising amount of awards love this season. As for Bradley Cooper, on top of his game in “American Sniper”: your turn will come, but probably not this year.

    Best Actress

    The one sure thing in this category is Julianne Moore as an early-onset Alzheimer’s patient in “Still Alice.” The love for “The Theory of Everything” probably means Felicity Jones will be here, too. And while few loved “Big Eyes,” the Academy probably hasn’t yet run out of love for Amy Adams, so she’s a likely contender, too. Reese Witherspoon‘s “Wild” made a respectable-sized splash, and Oscar loves a comeback, so she’s got a good shot. Rosamund Pike‘s tricky “Gone Girl” performance will probably round out the category. There’s a possibility, though that Jennifer Aniston will oust one of the weaker candidates (that is, anyone but Moore), since her dramatic transformation in “Cake” plays to the same backstory as Carell (beloved TV comic in an unflattering, vanity-free dramatic turn). Oh, and while critics have loved past Oscar-winner Marion Cotillard in both “Two Days, One Night” and “The Immigrant,” those movies don’t seem to have been on Oscar’s radar. Neither was “The Homesman,” so tough luck, Hilary Swank. “Into the Woods” has been huge, but Meryl Streep will suck up all that movie’s oxygen, so Emily Blunt probably won’t land a Best Actress nomination this time.

    Best Supporting Actor

    J.K. Simmons‘s hard-charging jazz teacher in “Whiplash” is a sure bet for a nomination — and probably the win. The love for “Boyhood” will earn a nod for Ethan Hawke; ditto for “Birdman” and Edward Norton. Mark Ruffalo is a likely fourth for “Foxcatcher.” Christoph Waltz has won this prize twice in recent years; that won’t stop him from earning a nomination for “Big Eyes,” though it will keep him from winning. But instead of Waltz, the fifth slot could easily go to Robert Duvall in “The Judge,” since he’s been an Oscar favorite for decades (he’s been nominated seven times and won once). Plus, if he wins, the 84-year-old would beat Christopher Plummer‘s record as the oldest acting winner ever.

    Best Supporting Actress

    “Boyhood” co-star Patricia Arquette has been the favorite in this category since last summer; that won’t change on Thursday. Emma Stone will ride the wave of “Birdman” love to a nomination as well. Meryl Streep will set a record with her 19th nomination, for her “Into the Woods” witch. (Sorry, Anna Kendrick, but that will be the movie’s only nomination in this category.) Keira Knightley seems all but a certainty for “The Imitation Game.” Jessica Chastain has been earning all kinds of awards love for “A Most Violent Year,” even though almost no one in America has seen the film yet. And that’s five. Sorry, Rene Russo (“Nightcrawler”) and Laura Dern (“Wild”), but this isn’t your year.

    Best Original Screenplay

    “Boyhood” and “Birdman” will be duking it out here, as elsewhere. “Foxcatcher” benefits from being one of the few biopics not based on a book. Same with Mike Leigh’s “Mr. Turner.” That last one could get ousted by the higher profile “Selma” script written by Paul Webb, but the controversy over its historical accuracy and the reports that director DuVernay essentially rewrote it put a nomination in serious jeopardy. So the fifth slot will almost certainly go to Wes Anderson for “The Grand Budapest Hotel.” “Whiplash” should be here, but an Academy technicality has placed it in the adapted category, where, hopefully, Oscar voters have noticed its surprise inclusion.

    Best Adapted Screenplay

    “The Theory of Everything” and “The Imitation Game” — the “Boyhood” and “Birdman” of biopics — will duke it out here. “Gone Girl” will almost certainly get a nod; not only will the Academy admire the way first-time screenwriter Gillian Flynn performed the difficult task of adapting her twisty best-seller to the screen while keeping the suspense intact, but she’ll also offer the rare chance of nominating a woman. (Yeah, shouldn’t matter, but it will.) “Wild” and “Inherent Vice” are also difficult literary adaptations, but since few have read Thomas Pynchon, voters won’t recognize what an accomplishment Paul Thomas Anderson’s “Vice” screenplay is. That leaves room for perhaps “American Sniper” or “Unbroken,” also challenging biographical adaptations. If Oscar voters noticed “Whiplash’s” sudden appearance in this category’s ballot, it could squeeze in, too. “Into the Woods” is doubtful, as nominations for librettists who adapt their own musicals to the screen are rare. (Too bad, James Lapine.)
    %Slideshow-161512%