Oscar nominations are scheduled to be announced on February 8th by Tracee Ellis Ross and Leslie Jordan. With the cancellation of the Golden Globes, and the Critic’s Choice Awards and other ceremonies postponed because of Covid concerns, this year’s awards season is unusually wide open with no true frontrunner in the pack.
Yes, it does seem that director Jane Campion’s ‘The Power of the Dog’ is set to receive several major nominations, but Kenneth Branagh’s ‘Belfast’ is fast on its heels, and don’t count out Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune’ just yet. In the acting categories, most are still open for some real surprises, with the exception of Will Smith and Kodi Smit-McPhee for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, respectively, who both seem to be locks.
Below are our predictions for the titles and names that will be announced when the nominations are released on February 8th. We are only breaking down our predictions and possible surprises for the six major categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.
Let’s Begin!
BEST PICTURE
As previously mentioned, ‘The Power of the Dog’ and ‘Belfast’ are both definitely a lock for Best Picture nominations. In theory, ‘Dune,’ and ‘Licorice Pizza’ are probably locks too, having racked up enough critic’s groups noms to assure their Oscar nominations. ‘CODA’ and ‘West Side Story’ are also in a pretty safe place, but anything could happen. After that, it’s pretty wide open.
In past years, the Academy has had the option to nominate between five and ten films. This year, they will definitely nominate ten movies, so that leaves four spots fairly free. ‘Don’t Look Up’ has had a great run on Netflix and has gained a lot of last-minute love, and I think will likely be nominated. The same can be said for the streamer’s ‘Tick, Tick … Boom!,’ and Will Smith’s commanding performance in ‘King Richard’ should be enough to get the film nominated as well.
Leaving just one spot left, I’m going with ‘Being the Ricardos’ over ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth.’ It could go either way, but the Lucille Ball biopic has gained some steam in the last few weeks after premiering on Prime Video and with both Nicole Kidman and Javier Bardem receiving surprise SAG nominations, it seems more likely. ‘Drive My Car,’ which seems a lock to win Best Foreign Film could sneak into the top ten, but unfortunately, the best reviewed movie of the year, ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home,’ seems very unlikely to even be nominated.
Predictions:
- ‘The Power of the Dog’
- ‘Belfast’
- ‘Dune’
- ‘West Side Story’
- ‘Licorice Pizza’
- ‘CODA’
- ‘King Richard’
- ‘Don’t Look Up’
- ‘Tick, Tick … Boom!’
- ‘Being the Ricardos’
Other Possibilities:
- ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’
- ‘Drive My Car’
- ‘The Lost Daughter’
- ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’
BEST DIRECTOR
With Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog’), Kenneth Branagh (‘Belfast’) and Denis Villeneuve (‘Dune’) as virtual locks for nominations, that only leaves two open spots. While Paul Thomas Anderson will certainly win his first Oscar for Best Original Screenplay for ‘Licorice Pizza,’ I still assume that he will receive a nomination for Best Director as well.
But who will take that fifth spot? Safe money is probably on Steven Spielberg for ‘West Side Story.’ While I don’t think he deserves to be nominated for the beat-for-beat remake, he is the most beloved filmmaker in modern history, and the Academy might just give him the nod. If Spielberg doesn’t make the cut, it will be because of Ryusuke Hamaguchi for ‘Drive My Car,’ which would follow a trend in recent years where the Academy nominates a foreign film for Best Director.
But, as I mentioned earlier there is a lot of love out there for ‘Don’t Look Up,’ so an Adam McKay nomination is possible, but may be a longshot. Another possibility but still a longshot is Sian Heder receiving her fist nomination for her work on ‘CODA.’
Predictions:
- Jane Campion – ‘The Power of the Dog’
- Denis Villeneuve – ‘Dune’
- Kenneth Branagh – ‘Belfast’
- Paul Thomas Anderson – ‘Licorice Pizza’
- Steven Spielberg – ‘West Side Story’
Other Possibilities:
- Ryusuke Hamaguchi – ‘Drive My Car’
- Adam McKay – ‘Don’t Look Up’
- Joel Coen – ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’
- Sian Heder – ‘CODA’
BEST ACTOR
Of all the acting categories, this one may be the most preordained. Unless something goes terribly wrong, Will Smith is poised to not only be nominated but also win his first Academy Award for his work in ‘King Richard.’
Benedict Cumberbatch is likely to enjoy the ‘Power of the Dog’ love and receive a nomination, while Andrew Garfield will be nominated as well for ‘Tick, Tick…Boom!,’ earning his nom as much for his return as Spider-Man in ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’ as he’s being rewarded for the Lin-Manuel Miranda movie. With his recent SAG Award nomination, and the buzz the film is getting, Javier Bardem will also be nominated for playing Desi Arnez in ‘Being the Ricardos.’
That leaves one nomination open, which will most likely go to Denzel Washington for ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth.’ A month ago, it seemed that Peter Dinklage would be nominated for ‘Cyrano,’ but with the film’s release pushed because of Covid, its awards season chances are cooling off. However, Nicolas Cage has earned some surprise nominations this year for ‘Pig,’ as has Simon Rex for ‘Red Rocket,’ so either actor could hypothetically sneak into the Oscar race.
Predictions:
- Will Smith – ‘King Richard’
- Benedict Cumberbatch – ‘The Power of the Dog’
- Andrew Garfield – ‘Tick, Tick…Boom!’
- Javier Bardem – ‘Being the Ricardos’
- Denzel Washington – ‘The Tragedy of Macbeth’
Other Possibilities:
- Peter Dinklage – ‘Cyrano’
- Leonardo DiCaprio – ‘Don’t Look Up’
- Nicolas Cage – ‘Pig’
- Simon Rex – ‘Red Rocket’
BEST ACTRESS
This might be the most interesting category this year. Assumed frontrunner Kristen Stewart is in some trouble, as she failed to receive a SAG or BAFTA nomination for her work in ‘Spencer.’ She could possibly get snubbed by the Academy, but I think she will still get the nom, however, her chances of winning are way down.
Nicole Kidman, Olivia Colman, and Jessica Chastain all received SAG noms, but no BAFTA nominations, making Lady Gaga the only true lock at this point for her work in ‘House of Gucci.’ My guess is that all five actresses will ultimately be nominated for Oscars, but don’t count out a surprise nom from the likes of Penelope Cruz for ‘Parallel Mothers’ or Alana Haim for ‘Licorice Pizza.’
Predictions:
- Nicole Kidman – ‘Being the Ricardos’
- Lady Gaga – ‘House of Gucci’
- Olivia Colman – ‘The Lost Daughter’
- Jessica Chastain – ‘The Eyes of Tammy Faye’
- Kristen Stewart – ‘Spencer’
Other Possibilities:
- Alana Haim – ‘Licorice Pizza’
- Penelope Cruz – ‘Parallel Mothers’
- Rachel Zegler – ‘West Side Story’
- Emilia Jones – ‘CODA’
- Jennifer Hudson – ‘Respect’
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
By all accounts, Kodi Smit-McPhee is a lock for a nomination and will likely ultimately win, but he has some strong competition from two veteran actors and former Oscar nominees. First, while he’ll probably get snubbed for his stellar work in ‘Nightmare Alley,’ Bradley Cooper will be nominated for his comedic performance as producer Jon Peters in ‘Licorice Pizza.’ It will mark his fifth nomination for acting, but like Smit-McPhee, to finally take home the award, Cooper will have to beat a late entry in the awards season race, Ben Affleck.
‘The Tender Bar’ opened late in December, but it seems a lot of voters are watching it on Prime Video as Affleck was suddenly thrown in the race after receiving a Golden Globe nomination. I actually think Affleck could end up being Smit-McPhee’s biggest competition as there is a lot of “good will” out there for his performance and overall career. After winning Best Picture for ‘Argo’ and being wrongfully snubbed for Best Director, there may be a sense that it is “his time,” a sentiment that could also help Cooper.
I also think that Troy Kotsur will receive a nomination for his work in ‘CODA,’ leaving just one more space on the ballot. While it’s likely that a spot could go to either Cirian Hinds or Jamie Dornan for ‘Belfast,’ I actually think the two actors will cancel each other out. As much as I would love to see J.K. Simmons nominated for ‘Being the Ricardos,’ it doesn’t seem likely and after his recent BAFTA nom, you can’t count out Mike Faist from ‘West Side Story.’ But my money is on Oscar winner Jared Leto’s bizarre performance in ‘House of Gucci’ to round out the category.
Predictions:
- Kodi Smit-McPhee – ‘The Power of the Dog’
- Bradley Cooper – ‘Licorice Pizza’
- Ben Affleck – ‘The Tender Bar’
- Troy Kotsur – ‘CODA’
- Jared Leto – ‘House of Gucci’
Other Possibilities:
- Ciaran Hinds – ‘Belfast’
- Jamie Dornan – ‘Belfast’
- Mike Faist – ‘West Side Story’
- J.K. Simmons – ‘Being the Ricardos’
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
While Kirsten Dunst is still the assumed frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, buzz for her performance has died down since the new year. While I still think she’ll score a nomination, she will have some stiff competition from her fellow nominees.
Ariana DeBose and Aunjanue Ellis will both be nominated for their work in ‘West Side Story’ and ‘King Richard,’ respectively, and are probably Dunst’s biggest competition. But don’t forget actress Caitriona Balfe’s beautiful performance in ‘Belfast,’ which I definitely think will be nominated.
That just leaves one open spot, which I think will go to Oscar winner Marlee Matlin for ‘CODA.’ However, if ‘CODA’ does not score well overall on Tuesday, then Ruth Negga will be nominated for ‘Passing.’ While it’s more of a longshot, after her recent BAFTA nom, character actress Ann Dowd could receive a surprise nomination for her work in ‘Mass.’
Predictions:
- Kirsten Dunst – ‘The Power of the Dog’
- Ariana DeBose – ‘West Side Story’
- Aunjanue Ellis – ‘King Richard’
- Caitriona Balfe – ‘Belfast’
- Marlee Matlin – ‘CODA’
Other Possibilities:
- Ruth Negga – ‘Passing’
- Rita Moreno – ‘West Side Story’
- Ann Dowd – ‘Mass’
- Judi Dench – ‘Belfast’
Don’t forget to check back with Moviefone for a list of all the nominees when the Academy Award nominations are announced on Tuesday, February 8th.
