The 98th Academy Awards will take place on Sunday, March 15th and with it will come the end of the 2026 award season.
Conan O’Brien is set to return as host, with scheduled presenters including last year’s winners Adrien Brody, Mikey Madison, Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña, as well as Oscar winner Javier Bardem, and past nominees Demi Moore and Kumail Nanjiani.
Nominated films include two of the biggest blockbusters of last year, ‘Sinners’ and ‘F1’, as well as critically acclaimed movies like ‘One Battle After Another,’ ‘Hamnet,’ ‘Sentimental Value‘, and ‘Marty Supreme‘.
RwNquYXbAGoW8nTlpSIS17While ‘One Battle After Another’ has been the presumed winner the entire awards season, having taken home Best Picture at every major award show including Critics Choice, Golden Globes, and BAFTA, ‘Sinners’ won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards, building some momentum for the Ryan Coogler helmed film.
It’s also been assumed that Paul Thomas Anderson would finally receive Best Director from the Oscars, especially after winning Outstanding Directorial Achievement from the DGA, but don’t count out a surprise win from Coogler just yet.
Speaking of ‘Sinners’, although Timothée Chalamet won Best Actor for ‘Marty Supreme’ from Critic’s Choice and the Golden Globes, he failed to win at BAFTA, and lost to Michael B Jordan at the Actors Awards, which signals trouble for Chalamet’s Oscar run.
On the other hand, ‘Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley has had virtually no competition in her race to the Best Actress Oscar and after winning every other major award, I don’t think anything can stop her from taking home gold on Oscar night.
Best Supporting Actress seems like a two-way race between Golden Globe winner Teyana Taylor for ‘One Battle’ and Actor Awards winner Amy Madigan for ‘Weapons‘, however, ‘Sinners’ Wunmi Mosaku is still in the mix.
Finally, the Best Supporting Actor category is fairly wide open, with BAFTA and Actor Awards winner Sean Penn currently the frontrunner fighting off Golden Globe winner Stellan Skarsgård for ‘Sentimental Value’. But the Oscars love a surprise, so if ‘Sinners’ has a big night, Delroy Lindo could end up having a surprise win.
Below are our predictions for who will win Oscars on Sunday at the 98th Academy Awards. We are only breaking down our predictions for the six major categories, Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Supporting Actress.
Let’s Begin!
Related Article: ‘Sinners’ and ‘One Battle After Another’ Lead The 2026 Oscar Nominees
BEST PICTURE
Well, now we finally have a real race!
Since the start of this awards season it has seemed preordained that director Paul Thomas Anderson’s ‘One Battle After Another’ would finally earn the filmmaker a long overdue win for Best Picture. The film has won almost every precursor needed to be the frontrunner, including wins at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the all important Producers Guild of America Awards.
However, don’t count ‘Sinners’ out just yet! After grabbing an Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture win at the Actor Awards, as well as Michael B. Jordan’s win for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role, the vampire epic now has real momentum.
It also did better at the box office than ‘One Battle’, which sometimes but not always is a factor. But keep in mind that Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture at the Actor Awards is basically a recognition of ensemble acting and not necessarily a film award. And while ‘One Battle’ was also in that category, I don’t buy into the narrative that ‘Sinners’ “beat” ‘One Battle’ for Best Picture at SAG.
It now seems like we have a two-way race but ‘Hamnet’ is still in the mix after winning a Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture – Drama, and remember it was produced by Oscar favorite Steven Spielberg.
Keep in mind that the Academy uses a preferential ballot for Best Picture, meaning the winner isn’t simply the film with the most No. 1 votes. Instead, voters rank the nominees, and if no film receives more than 50% of the first-place votes, the movie with the fewest No. 1 votes is eliminated and its ballots are redistributed to the next highest-ranked film on those ballots. That process continues until one film crosses the 50% threshold. In other words, it’s not just about passion at the top — it’s about broad support.
The real question isn’t only who voters rank No. 1, but which film consistently appears in the No. 2 and No. 3 spots and can accumulate support as other contenders fall away. My guess is that many voters may not rank ‘Sinners’ first, but could place it second or third, giving it a plausible path in later rounds. Still, the safer bet remains ‘One Battle’, which feels more likely to build the majority coalition needed to win.
Nominees:
- ‘Bugonia’
- ‘F1‘
- ‘Frankenstein’
- ‘Hamnet’
- ‘Marty Supreme‘
- ‘One Battle After Another’
- ‘The Secret Agent‘
- ‘Sentimental Value‘
- ‘Sinners‘
- ‘Train Dreams‘
Who Will Win: ‘One Battle After Another’
Who Could Win: ‘Sinners’
Who Should Win: ‘Sinners’
v5LFHnAkFrOnjfi1aaL9n4BEST DIRECTOR
Just like the Best Picture race, since the start of this current awards season it has seemed like this was “Paul Thomas Anderson’s Year”, and that the ‘Boogie Nights’ director would finally win his long-awaited Best Director Oscar. With directorial wins at every other award show including Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the all important Directors Guild Awards, it does look like Anderson will finally win Best Director at the Oscars.
But what about Ryan Coogler? While he has yet to win a director’s award this season, he is definitely Anderson’s biggest competition, especially now that the film is surging late. Typically, Best Picture and Best Director go hand in hand, but not always, and much like when Damien Chazelle won best director for ‘La La Land‘ but ‘Moonlight‘ went on to win Best Picture, we could see a similar spilt this year. But if we do, I think it is more likely that Anderson still wins Best Director, and the surprise win comes for ‘Sinners’ in Best Picture.
Also keep in mind that the Academy likes to make great directors wait. Steven Spielberg did not win for ‘Close Encounters of the Third Kind‘ or ‘Raiders of the Lost Ark‘, he won later for ‘Schindler’s List‘. Martin Scorsese did not win for ‘Raging Bull’ or ‘Goodfellas‘, he had to wait till ‘The Departed‘. Christopher Nolan didn’t win for ‘Dunkirk‘, he won for ‘Oppenheimer‘. Anderson probably should have won for directing ‘There Will Be Blood‘, but because the Coen Brothers didn’t win for ‘Fargo‘, when they should have, they were rewarded for ‘No Country for Old Men‘, making Anderson wait till now.
Let’s be honest, the Academy usually don’t get it right! They could be thinking that Coogler will return with another film in the near future, and want to finally reward Anderson now for ‘One Battle’ as well as his overall career, assuming that Coogler’s time will come sooner than later. While I would love to see an upset and have Coogler win, I would also like to see the Academy finally reward Anderson for his body of work, which I think will be the final result on Oscar night.
Nominees:
- Chloé Zhao – ‘Hamnet’
- Josh Safdie – ‘Marty Supreme’
- Paul Thomas Anderson – ‘One Battle after Another’
- Joachim Trier – ‘Sentimental Value’
- Ryan Coogler – ‘Sinners’
Who Will Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
Who Could Win: Ryan Coogler
Who Should Win: Paul Thomas Anderson
BEST ACTOR
This is the race to really keep an eye on! The Oscars love a surprise, and if there is going to be a big surprise on Oscar night, it will be in this category.
Timothée Chalamet began the awards season with wins from Critics Choice and Golden Globes, making it look like he was a lock for a Best Actor win at the Oscars. But, when he lost the BAFTA to Robert Aramayo for ‘I Swear‘, who is not even in the Oscar race, it left the young actor’s Oscar chances vulnerable.
That brings us to Michael B. Jordan, who in my opinion gave the best performance of the year, and recently beat Chalamet at the all important Actor Awards. Historically, one Actor Award win is not enough to ensure an Oscar win, as demonstrated by Chalamet last year when he won Best Actor from SAG for ‘A Complete Unknown‘ but then lost the Oscar race to Adrien Brody for ‘The Brutalist‘. But Jordan has the surging momentum of ‘Sinners’ behind him and a lot of goodwill from Academy voters, while Chalamet seems to be cooling off and has fueled criticism for his unusual Oscar campaign style and recent comments on “ballet and opera.”
There is also a theory that Chalamet is really being rewarded for his performance last year in ‘A Complete Unknown’, when he should have won, and not his performance this year in ‘Marty Supreme’. The Academy tends to do that and often tries to make up for their past mistakes. For example, after not nominating Paul Giamatti for ‘Sideways‘, which he should have been nominated for, the following year he was nominated for ‘Cinderella Man‘. So, if Chalamet does win, it will be for playing Bob Dylan and not for playing Marty Mauser!
Also working against Chalamet is the fact that the Academy typically does not give young actors the Best Actor trophy. They love giving the Best Actress award to young actresses, examples including Gwyneth Paltrow, Jennifer Lawrence, Emma Stone, and recently Mikey Madison. But, if Chalamet were to win, he would be just a few months shy of breaking Adrien Brody’s record as the youngest Best Actor recipient ever for his first win in ‘The Pianist‘. Jordan is just reaching his prime as an actor, and with a long body of work to his credit, voters could see him as a strong alternative, especially with his recent win and the ‘Sinners’ surging.
While Chalamet is statistically the frontrunner, I feel like there will be a big surprise on Oscar night and I’m betting on Jordan for the win.
Nominees:
- Timothée Chalamet – ‘Marty Supreme’
- Leonardo DiCaprio – ‘One Battle After Another’
- Ethan Hawke – ‘Blue Moon‘
- Michael B. Jordan – ‘Sinners’
- Wagner Moura – ‘The Secret Agent’
Who Will Win: Michael B. Jordan
Who Could Win: Timothée Chalamet
Who Should Win: Michael B. Jordan
CKADSUBv2bw7WoJvzJ6pa4BEST ACTRESS
There really is not much to say here. If there is any locked category this year, it is this one.
‘Hamnet’s Jessie Buckley is one win away from a “perfect award season’. After winning Best Actress at Critics Choice, Golden Globes, BAFTA, and the Actor Awards, she is almost guaranteed a win on Oscar night.
Does she have any competition? A little, but not much. Rose Byrne won a Golden Globe for ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You‘, but that’s because the Globes split the Best Actress race into two different categories, Drama and Musical or Comedy. So, Byrne did not compete in the same category as Buckley. When she has, she has lost to the ‘Hamnet’ star, and I see no reason that will not continue to take place.
Kate Hudson has been campaigning hard, but this is the only nomination ‘Song Sung Blue‘ received, and I don’t think that is enough to compete with Buckley and ‘Hamnet’, which received 8 overall nominations. ‘Sentimental Value’ does not seem to have the same momentum it did earlier in the season, leaving actress Renate Reinsve without a real path to the gold. And with two Oscars already on her shelf, Emma Stone’s nomination was more or less given just to round out the five nominees, not unlike some of Meryl Streep‘s past nominations.
The safe money is clearly on Jessie Buckley to win Best Actress, and at this point it would take a miracle for anyone else to beat her and win.
Nominees:
- Jessie Buckley – ‘Hamnet’
- Rose Byrne – ‘If I Had Legs I’d Kick You’
- Kate Hudson – ‘Song Sung Blue’
- Renate Reinsve – ‘Sentimental Value’
- Emma Stone – ‘Bugonia’
Who Will Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Could Win: Jessie Buckley
Who Should Win: Kate Hudson
pIAc3CyjkTkLx27o3pgJ87BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
This is another very interesting category and one to keep an eye on for big surprises on Oscar night!
With no real frontrunner, Best Supporting Actor is wide-open and really anybody’s for the taking.
The season began with Benicio del Toro positioned as the frontrunner for ‘One Battle’, but the actor has yet to win for that performance, putting his chances of winning the Oscar in doubt.
His co-star, Sean Penn, could be considered a slight frontrunner after winning BAFTA and the Actor Award, but with two Oscars already to his name, I’m not sure the Academy is ready to hand him his third just yet. I also think that having both actors from ‘One Battle’ in the same category will split the vote, leaving them both empty handed on Oscar night.
Jacob Elordi received a surprise win for ‘Frankenstein‘ at the Critics Choice Awards, but the young actor was unable to capitalize on it and has yet to win a second award.
Veteran actor Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe, but also was not able to capitalize with a second win, and with ‘Sentimental Value’s momentum cooling off, I’m not sure it will be enough to earn him the trophy.
Enter Delroy Lindo. Keep in mind that this is his first nomination this entire awards season, meaning that he has not had the opportunity to compete with his fellow nominees yet. It’s not unheard of for an actor to suddenly enter the Oscar race and win. Marcia Gay Harden successfully pulled that off when she won Best Supporting Actress for ‘Pollock‘ over Kate Hudson, the presumed frontrunner for ‘Almost Famous‘.
With ‘Sinners’ surging, Michael B. Jordan’s possible win, no real front runner in this category, and Lindo’s overall likability in the industry, I do think that he will pull off the win on Oscar night.
Nominees:
- Benicio del Toro – ‘One Battle After Another’
- Jacob Elordi – ‘Frankenstein’
- Delroy Lindo – ‘Sinners’
- Sean Penn – ‘One Battle After Another’
- Stellan Skarsgård – ‘Sentimental Value’
Who Will Win: Delroy Lindo
Who Could Win: Sean Penn
Who Should Win: Delroy Lindo
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
While its not as wide-open as Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress is really between two, maybe three actresses at this point.
Let’s just get this out of the way. Much like the two ‘One Battle’ actors in the Supporting Male category, I think ‘Sentimental Value’s Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas will cancel each other out. Neither has won any major award this season, and with the film’s lack of momentum, I doubt either actress has a real shot to win.
While Wunmi Mosaku did win BAFTA, I’m not sure that will be enough to win an Oscar. ‘Sinners’ popularity could give her a boost, and if Lindo and Jordan fail to win, this could be where ‘Sinners’ gets an acting award. But since I do think Jordan and Lindo will be triumphant, I’m thinking this award will be given to someone else.
Teyana Taylor won a Golden Globe, and her film is the frontrunner for Best Picture. It would be odd for ‘One Battle’ to win Best Picture with no wins in the actor categories, so if it were to win an acting Oscar, it will be here. But Taylor has some real competition from veteran actress Amy Madigan.
The ‘Weapons’ actress began the season winning Critics Choice, but bounced around a bit before recently winning the all important Actor Award. That doesn’t make her the frontrunner, but puts her on par with Taylor. Working against Madigan is that she is ‘Weapons’ only nomination, but it’s not unheard of for an actor to win for a movie that received no other nominations. It happened when Kathy Bates won Best Actress for ‘Misery‘.
So while it’s a tight race, I think that Madigan’s long career and versatile body of work will in the end give her an edge over Taylor.
Nominees:
- Elle Fanning – ‘Sentimental Value’
- Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – ‘Sentimental Value’
- Amy Madigan – ‘Weapons‘
- Wunmi Mosaku – ‘Sinners’
- Teyana Taylor – ‘One Battle After Another’
Who Will Win: Amy Madigan
Who Could Win: Teyana Taylor
Who Should Win: Amy Madigan
xtEXVsof6Y9PmpmI1phg34Don’t forget to watch the 98th Academy Award ceremony Sunday, March 15th on ABC and Hulu.
